Macro calendar
FOMC calendar for probability watchers.
Use meeting dates and data-release windows to understand why macro prediction markets can move quickly.
Independent educational site. Not financial, betting, legal, or trading advice. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
Market-implied probability
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Trending probability watchlist
These snapshots are loaded from public Polymarket market data when the page opens. They are informational only.
LIVE data loads from a public API. Prices can change quickly and may be delayed or unavailable.
How to use this tracker
Use market-implied probabilities as a research signal, then check the market rules, resolution criteria, liquidity, and outside evidence. ProbabilityWatch does not recommend trades or guarantee outcomes.
- Read the exact event question and resolution source.
- Check whether liquidity is deep enough for the displayed price to be meaningful.
- Compare market movement with news, calendars, and primary sources.
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Long-cycle political probability trackers, including 2028 US presidential markets and global elections.
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Open guide →Crypto
BTC, ETH, and digital-asset threshold markets explained as probabilities rather than hype.
Open guide →Calculator
Convert YES prices into implied probabilities and rough payout examples.
Open guide →Guide
Learn the basics: YES price, market rules, liquidity, spreads, and responsible use.
Open guide →