Beginner guide
Prediction markets, explained without the hype.
Learn what prediction markets are, why prices move, and how to read market-implied probabilities before opening any live market.
Independent educational site. Not financial, betting, legal, or trading advice. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
Market-implied probability
42¢ = 42%Example YES price translated into implied probabilityUse the calculator to compare price, payout and break-even probability.Explore ProbabilityWatch
Build your probability reading stack
Elections
Long-cycle political probability trackers, including 2028 US presidential markets and global elections.
Open guide →Fed / Economy
FOMC meetings, rate-cut expectations, CPI, inflation, and macro event probabilities.
Open guide →AI / Tech
AI model rankings, big tech, private company events, SpaceX IPO expectations, and tech narratives.
Open guide →Crypto
BTC, ETH, and digital-asset threshold markets explained as probabilities rather than hype.
Open guide →Calculator
Convert YES prices into implied probabilities and rough payout examples.
Open guide →Guide
Learn the basics: YES price, market rules, liquidity, spreads, and responsible use.
Open guide →Learning hub