Prediction market education + live probability snapshots
Watch probabilities, not hype.
ProbabilityWatch explains how market-implied probabilities work and tracks selected live event markets across elections, economics, AI, tech and crypto.
Independent educational site. Not financial, betting, legal, or trading advice.
Start with the highest-intent guides
These pages target evergreen search intent before sending visitors to live markets.
What is a prediction market?
A plain-English explainer for event contracts, market prices and crowd probabilities.
CalculatorYES price to implied probability
Turn a 17¢, 42¢ or 73¢ YES price into a percentage and rough payout estimate.
ComparePolymarket vs Kalshi
Understand platform positioning, terminology and why availability differs by region.
RiskPrediction market risk checklist
A concise checklist covering liquidity, spreads, rule risk, resolution and jurisdiction.
Live probability dashboard
Filtered away from short-term sports hype and sensitive conflict markets by default.
Loading public market data from Polymarket. Prices can move quickly and may be delayed.
Topic hubs built for search
Each hub combines an evergreen explainer, a live market view and internal links to deeper articles.
2028 election probability hub
President, party nomination and candidate-tracker pages for long-tail search demand.
FedFOMC and rate-cut probability hub
Track rate decision vocabulary, meeting calendars and inflation-linked market expectations.
AIAI market probability hub
Follow model rankings, company milestones and tech-event markets without hype.
CryptoCrypto probability hub
A safer educational route into crypto-event probabilities and market mechanics.