Resolution guide
How to Read Event Contract Rules
The title is only the headline. Learn how resolution rules, dates and sources determine what a market actually means.
Educational note: This article explains market structure and probability reading. It is not financial, legal or trading advice.
Start with the exact wording
Identify the event, time window, threshold, source of truth and any exclusions. Small wording differences can change the probability.
Key questions
- What source resolves the outcome?
- What is the deadline?
- What happens if data is revised?
- Are there edge-case clauses?
- Is the event binary or part of a group?
Why this protects research quality
A clean probability comparison requires comparing equivalent contracts. Rules are what make two similar-sounding markets different.
Reader checklist: compare the market wording, price, liquidity and resolution source before treating any probability as meaningful.
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