Risk guide
Prediction Market Risk Checklist
A concise checklist for reading prediction-market probabilities responsibly before clicking through to an external platform.
Educational note: This guide explains probability and market structure. It is not a recommendation to trade, and availability depends on local rules.
Before you rely on a probability
- Read the exact event title and resolution source.
- Check the end date and settlement timing.
- Inspect liquidity and bid-ask spread.
- Compare with independent data.
- Understand your local availability and legal constraints.
Common mistakes
Do not treat a high probability as certainty. Do not ignore fees or spread. Do not rely on social posts without reading the market rules.
Educational disclaimer
ProbabilityWatch is an independent information site. Nothing here is financial, legal or trading advice.
Next step: compare a market price with your own estimate, then read the rules before opening any external market.
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