Resolution guide
What Happens When a Prediction Market Resolves?
Understand the resolution process: criteria, sources of truth, settlement timing and common edge cases.
Educational note: This article explains market structure and probability reading. It is not financial, legal or trading advice.
Resolution is rule-based
A market resolves according to written criteria, not the most popular interpretation of the headline. The source of truth and cutoff dates matter.
Common stages
- Event occurs or deadline passes.
- Resolution source is checked.
- Platform posts or executes the outcome.
- Settlement occurs according to platform rules.
Edge cases
Ambiguous wording, delayed data, changed institutions or conflicting sources can make resolution more complex. Read the rules before relying on a price.
Reader checklist: compare the market wording, price, liquidity and resolution source before treating any probability as meaningful.
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